Do Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Policy Uncertainties Reorient Mineral Imports in the USA? A Fat-Tailed Data Analysis Using Novel Quantile Approaches
Электронный научный архив УРФУ
Информация об архиве | Просмотр оригинала| Поле | Значение | |
| Заглавие |
Do Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Policy Uncertainties Reorient Mineral Imports in the USA? A Fat-Tailed Data Analysis Using Novel Quantile Approaches
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| Автор |
Islam, M. M.
Sohag, K. Rehman, F. U. |
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| Тематика |
ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY
GEOPOLITICAL RISKS MINERAL IMPORT DEMAND THE CROSS-QUANTILOGRAM THE QUANTILE-ON-QUANTILE USA |
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| Описание |
Mineral resources are essential raw materials to generate electricity, fuel vehicles, and heat homes and workplaces. Besides, the global agenda of clean energy deployment, including solar photovoltaics (PV), wind turbines, electric vehicles (EV), and storage facilities, calls for a considerable volume of critical minerals, which elevates their respective import demands. This highly concentrated source of those minerals poses a significant concern triggered by the augmented geopolitical tensions and economic policy uncertainties. In light of this context, our objective is to estimate the response of mineral import demand to global geopolitical risk events and economic policy uncertainty covering monthly data from January 1996 to December 2020. In doing so, we apply the cross-quantilogram (CQ) and the quantile-on-quantile (QQ) regression approaches due to the fat-tailed nature of the data property. Besides, these quantile-based data analysis procedures are appropriate for non-normal data sets and show the co-movement of the variables of interest under a bi-variate modelling approach. More importantly, these two techniques also exhibit the quantile connectedness among the variables in the bearish and bullish conditions. Moreover, our findings show that mineral import demand responds negatively to the USA’s (own) and global geopolitical risk events at the high quantiles under long memory. In addition, this demand reacts positively to the USA’s (own) and global economic policy uncertainty in entire quantiles under long memory. Therefore, our policy suggestions are concerned with tackling geopolitical tensions and economic policy uncertainty by adopting pre-emptive measures within a viable institutional mechanism to continue impressive mineral trade flows. © 2022 by the authors.
Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation, Minobrnauka; Ural Federal University, UrFU The research funding from the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (Ural Federal University project within the Priority-2030 Program) is gratefully acknowledged. |
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| Дата |
2024-04-05T16:26:18Z
2024-04-05T16:26:18Z 2023 |
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| Тип |
Article
Journal article (info:eu-repo/semantics/article) |info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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| Идентификатор |
Islam, MM, Sohag, K & Rehman, FU 2023, 'Do Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Policy Uncertainties Reorient Mineral Imports in the USA? A Fat-Tailed Data Analysis Using Novel Quantile Approaches', Mathematics, Том. 11, № 1, 180. https://doi.org/10.3390/math11010180
Islam, M. M., Sohag, K., & Rehman, F. U. (2023). Do Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Policy Uncertainties Reorient Mineral Imports in the USA? A Fat-Tailed Data Analysis Using Novel Quantile Approaches. Mathematics, 11(1), [180]. https://doi.org/10.3390/math11010180 2227-7390 Final All Open Access, Gold https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85145914663&doi=10.3390%2fmath11010180&partnerID=40&md5=6ce533a2383f9b9165441c80a6031294 https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/11/1/180/pdf?version=1672311519 http://elar.urfu.ru/handle/10995/130570 10.3390/math11010180 85145914663 000908849300001 |
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| Язык |
en
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| Права |
Open access (info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess)
cc-by https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
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| Формат |
application/pdf
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| Издатель |
MDPI
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| Источник |
Mathematics
Mathematics |
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