Stress analysis in managing the region’s budget risks
Электронный научный архив УРФУ
Информация об архиве | Просмотр оригинала| Поле | Значение | |
| Заглавие |
Stress analysis in managing the region’s budget risks
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| Автор |
Pazdnikova, N. N.
Shipitsyna, S. Ye. |
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| Тематика |
A STATE PROGRAM
BUDGET PERFORMANCE BUDGET RISK PROBABILITY REGION REVENUES RISK MANAGEMENT SPENDING THE BUDGET DEFICIT THE RISK ASSESSMENT |
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| Описание |
The article addresses the implementation of budget risk management methods into the practices of governmental authorities. Drawing on the example of a particular region the article aims to demonstrate the possible methods of budget risk management. The authors refine the existing approaches to the notion of risk in its relation to budget system by introducing the notion of “budget risk.” Here the focus is the risk of default of budget spending in full which causes underfunding of territories and decrease in quality of life in the region. The authors have particularized the classification of budget risks and grouped together the criteria and factors which significantly influence the assessment and choice of method to manage budget risks. They hypothesize that budget risk is a financial risk. Therefore, the methods of financial risks management can be applied to budget risks management. The authors suggest a methodological approach to risk assessment based on correlation and regression analysis of program financing. The application of Kendall rank correlation coefficient allowed to assess the efficiency of budget spending on the implementation of state programs in Perm Krai. Two clusters — “Nature management and infrastructure” and “Public security” — turned out to be in the zone of high budget risk. The method of stress analysis, which consists in calculating Value at Risk (VaR), was applied to budget risks that in terms of probability are classified as critical. In order to assess risk as probability rate, the amount of Perm Krai deficit budget was calculated as induced variable from budget revenues and spending. The results demonstrate that contemporary management of public resources in the regions calls for the implementation of new management tools of higher quality and budget risk management is one of them.
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| Дата |
2024-04-17T11:46:43Z
2024-04-17T11:46:43Z 2014 |
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| Тип |
Article
Journal article (info:eu-repo/semantics/article) Published version (info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion) |
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| Идентификатор |
Pazdnikova N. N. Stress analysis in managing the region’s budget risks / N. N. Pazdnikova, S. Ye. Shipitsyna // Economy of Region. — 2014. — Iss. 3. — P. 208-217.
2411-1406 2072-6414 http://elar.urfu.ru/handle/10995/131972 10.17059/2014-3-21 84979833355 |
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| Язык |
ru
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| Связанные ресурсы |
Экономика региона. 2014. Выпуск 3
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| Права |
Open access (info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess)
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| Формат |
application/pdf
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| Издатель |
Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Институт экономики Уральского отделения РАН |
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| Источник |
Econ. Reg.
Economy of Region |
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