Medium Term Scenario Forecast Of The Rural Population In Russia
Электронный научный архив УРФУ
Информация об архиве | Просмотр оригинала| Поле | Значение | |
| Заглавие |
Medium Term Scenario Forecast Of The Rural Population In Russia
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| Автор |
Blinova, T. V.
Bylina, S. G. |
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| Тематика |
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS
FORECAST RURAL POPULATION RUSSIA SIZE AND STRUCTURE |
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| Описание |
The main objective of the study was to develop a number and structure forecast of the rural population in Russia (2020-2040), based on the scenario approach. Predictive modeling of alternative scenarios of demographic development of the village was conducted in accordance with the phases of the national priorities and strategic objectives in the field of population development. Seven scenarios of the demographic development of the Russian village until 2040 were developed, simulating the change of parameters of fertility, a death rate, and migration, determining population dynamics and structure of the rural population. According to the received information, the rural population of the Russian Federation could be decreased from 37.1 million people (2014) to 29, 3-34, 7 million people (2040). In this case, all the scenarios show decrease in people of the working age and women of childbearing age. It was noted that the reduction of the working-age rural population limits opportunities for the rural areas economic development, and the measures of the active population policies have a short-term effect. The study shows that an additional set of measures of the active population policy, considering the inertia of the processes of the population reproduction, is advised to be implemented before 2015.
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| Дата |
2024-04-17T11:47:01Z
2024-04-17T11:47:01Z 2014 |
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| Тип |
Article
Journal article (info:eu-repo/semantics/article) Published version (info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion) |
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| Идентификатор |
Blinova T. V. Medium Term Scenario Forecast Of The Rural Population In Russia / T. V. Blinova, S. G. Bylina // Economy of Region. — 2014. — Iss. 4. — P. 298-308.
2411-1406 2072-6414 http://elar.urfu.ru/handle/10995/132004 84979798818 |
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| Язык |
ru
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| Связанные ресурсы |
Экономика региона. 2014. Выпуск 4
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| Права |
Open access (info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess)
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| Формат |
application/pdf
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| Издатель |
Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Институт экономики Уральского отделения РАН |
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| Источник |
Econ. Reg.
Economy of Region |
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