ТЕОРЕТИКО-МЕТОДИЧЕСКИЙ ПОДХОД К ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЮ СОЦИАЛЬНО-ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКОГО РАЗВИТИЯ РЕГИОНА
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| Заглавие |
ТЕОРЕТИКО-МЕТОДИЧЕСКИЙ ПОДХОД К ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЮ СОЦИАЛЬНО-ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКОГО РАЗВИТИЯ РЕГИОНА
THEORETICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH TO FORECASTING OF SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT OF A REGION |
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| Автор |
Chereshnev, V. А.
Kuklin, А. А. Cherepanova, А. V. Черешнев, В. А. Куклин, А. А. Черепанова, А. В. |
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| Описание |
The basic problems of current socio-demographic development of Russian regions are considered raising the need to find socio-economic and socio-psychological reasons for current demographic tendencies. Th eoretical substantiation of a demographic situation in Russia taking into account characteristics of the second demographic transition and influence of social stress has been given. Definition of the concept “eff ective sociodemographic development of a region” owing to synergetic effect in terms of socio-economic and demographic system interaction has been suggested. The forecasting method of socio-demographic region development on the basis of sharing of synergy and simulation modeling has been offered. Probabilistic forecasts of the population size of the Constituent Entities of the Russian Federation being parts of the Ural Federal District till 2025 have been obtained; the given forecasts are to estimate possible ways of socio-demographic development of the Ural Federal District.
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| Дата |
2024-04-27T12:17:38Z
2024-04-27T12:17:38Z 2010 |
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| Тип |
Article
Journal article (info:eu-repo/semantics/article) Published version (info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion) |
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| Идентификатор |
Черешнев В. А. ТЕОРЕТИКО-МЕТОДИЧЕСКИЙ ПОДХОД К ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЮ СОЦИАЛЬНО-ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКОГО РАЗВИТИЯ РЕГИОНА / В. А. Черешнев, А. А. Куклин, А. В. Черепанова // Экономика региона. — 2010. — Том 6, Выпуск 2. — С. 38-46.
2072-6414 http://elar.urfu.ru/handle/10995/133410 15001566 |
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| Язык |
ru
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| Связанные ресурсы |
Экономика региона. 2010. Том 6, Выпуск 2
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| Права |
Open access (info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess)
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| Формат |
application/pdf
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| Издатель |
Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Институт экономики Уральского отделения РАН |
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